Where is Fall

Here we are in the hottest Summer on record in South Georgia. It is supposed to feel like Fall but even though this morning was a bit cooler I still don't feel it.

Peanut prediction models continue to show a yield decline. One county agent told me the dry land peanuts he has looked at have mold on the kernels when they shell the peanuts to look at them. The hope of rain from the active hurricane season we were to have just never came. There have also been reports of Seg. 2 peanuts which would indicate damage due to the dry weather. The ground where farmers can't irrigate is hard and we really need a rain just to get where we can dig in those fields. As if this is not bad enough the State Climatologist says the drought will likely continue in 2011.

It is heartbreaking to me to talk to farmers who I know are good farmers and are telling me they may not be able to farm next year. The concern is this may be the straw which broke the camel's back. It costs so much to make a crop on a commercial sized family farm and when you look at losses of half to three quarters of a million dollars that is hard to overcome.

I think all the talk about a surplus of peanuts has pretty much evaporated with the excessive heat and drought.

If I was a farmer with un-contracted, irrigated peanuts I would be as patient as the banker would let me be because I truly believe the price should improve from this point forward.

Now for 2011, if cotton prices hold it is going to be hard for the industry to excite farmers about planting peanuts in lieu of cotton unless pre-plant contracts for peanuts have a 5 for the first number and in some areas that number may even need to have a 5 or better as the second number.

I have been looking at the National Center for Peanut Competitiveness representative farms and those farms support my gut feel.

One bright spot came when a farmer told me his input costs were down from last year on a per unit basis.

Sadly, we could have used some disaster assistance for last year's wet harvest or for this year's excessive heat and drought but USDA chose to help farmer in Arkansas but little anywhere else and Congress failed dismally by not passing a disaster bill which would have helped farmers across the country. Don't fuss and ask why we should have the government bail out farmers, farm programs have stabilized food prices and just think about going to the store and finding empty shelves and prices double or triple what they are now. It is good business for everyone who likes to eat.

I am pretty well convinced many farmers have found themselves in a debt crisis but it seems Wall Street speculators are more important than the folks who feed and clothe us.

Georgia Peanut Tour -- day two

Todd Powell, a Marion County farmer discussed the challenges he has faced this year in producing his peanut crop. He runs a very conservative farm and has pine seedlings as a non-traditional crop enterprise.

It has been a hot dry year in his area and his irrigated peanuts look good but the cost is extreme.

The Georgia Peanut Tour went through the Lance factory in Columbus in the morning and then began farm tours this afternoon.

The next stop will be Chase Farms in Oglethorpe.

I have had the special pleasure of having Gary Black ride with me today. Gary is a long time friend and though I cannot, as a representative of the Commission, endorse him I am glad that things look favorable for him. If he gets to be a big successful politician I live with the confidence he will still be my friend above all.

September 14 -- I wish this was our entire crop

I was on my way to the Georgia Peanut Tour in Americus and went on one of my shortcuts to get here from Tifton. I went Tifton to Warwick to Vienna and then to Americus.

Northern Tift County looked pretty good, northern Turner County was dry and showed the hot dry summer, Arabi in southern Crisp was really dry, the Arabi/Warwick highway was like a roller coaster with ups and downs, Coney road in northern Crisp looked like the Garden of Eden and then as I went in to Dooly County it got dry again, and on my way to Americus from Vienna I came across this field. These are dryland peanuts southwest of Vienna and east of the Flint River. I wish so badly the Georgia crop all looked like these peanuts and frankly this field. Then as I crossed the river into Sumter County the conditions were the worst of the trip. This bad streak goes west to Early County and East toward Dublin. It is easy with a little travel to see the fact, Mother Nature can be a bit fickle.

Ag and Patriot Day in Rochelle

This past Saturday Rochelle, Georgia had their annual Ag and Patriotism Day. It was hot and the gnats were there and so was the Peanut Commission with those freshly cooked, southern fried peanuts.

Look at those tractors. The world would have been really hungry if those hadn't come along. Now they are about like toys compared to the modern tractors of today.

Georgia Peanut Tour and Other Info.

Go to the Georgia Peanut Commission website to see YouTube videos, photos, and the Peanut Tour blog to keep up with the 2010 Georgia Peanut Tour. www.gapeanuts.com

2010 Georgia Peanut Tour on Twitter

For updates on the Georgia Peanut Tour on Twitter go to www.twitter.com/georgiapeanuts

Crop Conditions

Many of the farmers I have been talking to and county agents as well tell me next year will be a tough situation for many farmers.

The heat and drought has taken its toll on many farmers and I am hearing reports of farmers who will not be able to farm again next year in many areas.

Looking at crop conditions it is very spotty. I can find peanuts and cotton which are absolutely beautiful but I can find more it seems which look very very bad.

At this juncture I am very curious as to our ability to make the 3400 pound peanut yield the last crop report suggested. Where farmers did make yields the cost is prohibitive for profitability. The other thing I am hearing is lower grades than in the past several years.

Complicate this with higher cotton prices and the farmers who may survive are telling me they need a $500 peanut contract to encourage them to plant peanuts in lieu of cotton. Remember cotton does not require the rotation peanuts does.