Friday, August 10, 2012

Certified Acres

Georgia's certified acres when adjusted for green peanuts and for anticipated abandoned acres will still be about 715,000 acres. I also think there is a real prospect of the average yield exceeding 3600 pounds per acre and frankly would not be shocked at the end of the day with a Georgia production of 1,400,000 tons when harvest is done.

I would anticipate really good quality and lower aflatoxin numbers than recent years because the night time temperatures and even daytime temperatures of recent have been really low.

I saw six rows of some March planted peanuts in Crisp County dug and they look pretty darn good so I would say harvest has begun if at a slow pace for now. I was suspect the peanuts had a pretty heavy pod load because they would get rain and then in a day they were wilting back down.

One Sheller has sent out letters saying he cannot honor the contracts he has with farmers. This will have a pretty serious ripple through the industry in the future because it has brought in to consideration the lack of sanctity of a contract. Contracts are essential in the absence of a futures market.

I anticipate the 2013 acres to drop like an atom bomb. We will have a potential shortage of peanuts by the end of 2013 if manufacturers and therefore shellers follow suit of what has been the history of failure to meet competition in the market place for acres.

Corn and soy will be the crops of choice with cotton inching up since India has pulled out of the market. Problem with soy is it kills peanut rotation for the next couple years on those acres. Soy is just like peanuts in rotation. The potential profit from corn and soy for 2013 look to exceed what the potential seems to be for peanuts.

Get on the roller coaster and ride. Farmers need to remember that if they can hold out until January to put peanuts in loan then the loan does not mature until the end of October. There may be some stronger pricing opportunities as we get close to the 2013 harvest and for sure should be some after planting.

We are in a two year market cycle and farmers and bankers are going to have to learn how to deal with this.

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